There is no doubt that the Pac-10 is one of the top two conferences in the nation and it is not easy to escape the Pac-10 schedule, not to mention that Cal has played a strong non-conference schedule in recent years too, so those factors contribute. I would be interested in hearing some of your ideas why Cal hasn’t had the type of success (on the field) we all have expected of them, relative to the talent they have had. Clearly they have recruited talent. Hopefully this is the year they make a deep run in the tournament and can put to bed all the whispers that DO exist about why there hasn’t been more success (again, on the field… they are no doubt strong in the classroom and I would also assume in the campus community).

Hitters
Stephen Yarrow, USF, Jr., 1B – Hit is 7th home run on Friday, tied for the lead among all Northern CA D1 sluggers. The big LHH from South Lake Tahoe (what a recruiting find he was!) has always shown power but is now putting some average with the power. If he keeps slugging like this, he will continue to rise up draft lists. Yarrow is what scouts consider “country strong.”

Chadd Krist, Cal, So., C – has 5 homers on the year and a very sturdy .477 average through 3/12. Krist was a four year standout varsity player in high school at Petaluma HS and late last year took over the full-time catching duties at Cal. Shockingly enough, Krist was a very very late sign by the Bears out of high school. He was seen by most schools at BAWS but didn’t draw early or late signing period interest. He has always been a very sound, steady hitter and an above average catcher. Really, there was never anything NOT to like about him, he just needed an opportunity.

Jordan Ribera, Fresno State, Jr., 1B/DH – Ribera has not been used all that much in his career at Fresno State but is making the most of his junior year. He is a big bodied LHH and in BP has always shown that he has power, but just never got steady playing time and when he did, his average was holding him back from staying in the line-up. Most impressive is that he has only struck out 8 times in 53 AB so far… a Joe DiMaggio-esque HR:K ratio!

Westley Moss, Nevada, Sr., CF – Moss is a flier and was a player that I wanted in the last two drafts. He started very slowly as a junior only to come on late… well, he is off to a fast start this year, with a .426 average (he even has a HR, though that is his only Xtra base hit) and 9 SB (CS 3 times). Moss is a very gifted outfielder too.

Mike Walker, Pacific, Sr., 3B/1B – Walker is a strong, big LHH and is going to get a chance to play pro ball. He is off to a strong start for the surprising Tigers, with a .417 average, 3 HR, and 17 RBI. He is a good athlete, runs well, and his bat is leading the way for the Tigers.

Santa Clara hitters – Four regulars (Wagner .436, Viele .433, Stover .422, Medica .404) are over .400 and a fifth regular (Herbst .386) is near that mark. As previously stated, hitting is NOT going to be a problem for this club. Wagner is draft eligible and hits from the LH side. Stover is a highly touted frosh and was one of the more valued high school hitters by scouts last year. If you are reading this, you know of Tommy Medica and very likely of Lucas Herbst.

Kenny Diekroeger, Stanford, Fr., INF – It’s not like Kenny is really tearing it up (.382 through 34 AB), but he is the leading hitter among Stanford’s regulars, which is not a shock AT ALL to any of us that have watched him play for the last few years, particularly the scouts. He only has four extra base hits but that number will climb as the season goes on. The main reason he is on this list… not too many freshmen lead Stanford in hitting… the season is not done, but I would put money on him being the leading hitter among the regulars this year.

Scott Lyman, UC Davis, So., INF/P – Lyman drew a lot of attention in the fall by dialing up a low-mid 90s fastball at the UC Davis scout day. However, it is with is bat that he is now making waves, with a .448 average, 2 HR, 7 2B and 10 RBI for the Aggies. More impressive is that he has done his damage at his home ballpark, which is a VERY spacious yard, except directly down the lines. Time will tell as to what position Lyman will play as a professional but for now, his bat is doing the talking.

Heading into the 2009 draft Stassi was considered one of the top high school prospects in the country primarily because he was considered an advanced hitter and a safe bet to continue to hit as a pro. He is a an above average defensive player as well and already approaches the game like a pro. His make-up is as good as a scout will ever find, not in just a high school player, but in any amateur prospect.

Stassi was on many scouts’ preference lists as a 1st rounder (mine included) and likely rated as no lower than the 4th or at the lowest the 5th best prospect in the area for the 2009 draft. Other players rated as 1st round prospects by many of the scouts were Drew Storen of Stanford, Brett Jackson of Cal, Kenny Diekroeger of Menlo School, Blake Smith of Cal, and Tim Wheeler of Sacramento State. I might be forgetting someone but I think that covers all the players that could have been considered that high, though I can conceive that some scouts might have had Cal’s Jeff Kobernus as a supplemental 1st rounder (he went with the 1st pick in the 2nd round).

In the early season, sophomore outfielder Lucas Herbst is tearing it up, to the tune of .412 through nine games. Junior infielder Curtis Wagner (was VERY excited about him as a pro prospect) is at an even .400, freshman outfielder Pat Stover and Medica are hovering near .400 and senior C/1B/DH Geoff Klein is not even hitting yet (he hit .379 with 56 RBI as a junior). Herbst, Wagner, Stover, and Medica have all homered.

They have R/L balance in the line-up and solid speed. Herbst is a LHH and runs well, with EXCELLENT baseball instincts. Stover is a RHH and has power and speed and the type of bat/body/athleticism that projects VERY well at the pro level. Wagner is a LHH hitter with great bat speed and line drive power. Medica is the consumate professional type player, meaning he is well rounded, does most everything well, understands the game and situations and is a team first guy, without having to sacrifice his strengths and abilities. The key guy will be Klein, a tall, strong LHH with gap power and the ability to use the whole field. If he gets it going, that line-up is going to keep the Broncos in most every single game.

In addition to the aforementioned players, sophomore RHH Andrew Biancardi is a very solid hitter and will factor in much more as the season goes along, as will RS freshman LHH Ryan Rieger. Obviously I feel good about the offense. I do not feel the same way about the pitching staff.

It is not that SCU does not have capable pitchers, but they are all kind of the same guy. There are a number of mid-upper 80s types with nice change-ups but none of them seem to have the ability to miss bats on a consistent basis and they tend to pitch around contact too often. That is a death sentence for a staff that does not have guys with swing and miss type stuff. I like Garcia as a bulldog and he tends to be quite consistent in terms of the stuff he brings each game but scouting reports are prevalent in college baseball and there is NO mystery about him at this point in his career.

Rivers has a solid arm and used to really be successful as a reliever, same with Thain Simon. Both seem to have leveled off as their careers have moved along. Sophomore RHP J.R. Graham has the best pure stuff on the staff but he has never really had consistent work on the mound (he is a 2-way guy) to really hone his feel for the ball. If he is locating then he can definitely be a valuable guy but if he is just around the zone, then he gets hit hard too.

I look at the names of the rest of that staff and I just don’t see enough pitching to not leave the Broncos disappointed again. Another indication that it will be a long year on the mound for SCU is the starters have logged just over 70% of the innings so far. Rivers is a little guy that has not logged starter type innings yet in college. Garcia is a workhorse but there is lots of mileage on him because he has basically been the Friday guy since his freshman year. I like Garcia but that tells you something about the make-up of recent Santa Clara pitching staffs.

Originally I said that I do not know of Hughes from firsthand knowledge but that is wrong, I failed to remember that he is Jon Hughes, from Valley Christian. Big strong RHP with pro body and good arm. Was told that he was around 90 in the 6th inning of his last game. He is a RS freshman. That boosts the staff a bit, but again, I think they are going to lack depth as the year goes along.

Senior RHP Doug Murray of USF is off to a Drew Storen-like start to the 2010 season. After three starts, he has a 2-1 record and an impressive 1.57 ERA. Those are solid numbers, no doubt. Murray is a side-armer and gets tremendous sink and run on his fastball. He can pitch with that fastball and get groundball outs all day long, but also has a slider and the ability to finish hitters himself, which he is doing at a much higher rate than he did in 2009.

As a junior, Murray (El Cerrito HS & Diablo Valley College) had an excellent year, finishing with a 9-0 record and 3.77 ERA in his first year at the D1 level. He pitched 88.1 innings in ’09, allowed 95 hits and finished with 45 K vs 21 BB. Batters hit .271 against him, which is an indication of pitching to contact. Fast forward to 2010 and now look at the peripheral numbers… 23 IP, 18 H… and here comes the WOW stat… 21 K vs 1 BB. He is not only pounding the zone, but is also missing bats. Murray also has 2 complete games.

When draft time comes, Murray will not get big time public attention, but he is going to get drafted and is going to succeed in pro ball. I would guess he is going to go sometime from the 8th to the 15th round, will sign quickly (he is a senior), will report soon and will advance a level or two this summer (he will be a reliever). I remember talking to his coach at DVC, Mike Neu (a former big leaguer) and also to his former pitching coach at USF (Greg Moore) and both mentioned Murray’s tremendous make-up… competitiveness and toughness and focus. That was in addition to the nasty movement and feel for the ball.

Granted, Jones has faced Southern Utah and Saint Mary’s so far and no disrespect to those teams, but they aren’t quite ASU or Oregon State. That being said, if Jones continues to have that type of K:BB ratio, he will be good all year. The challenge will be to stay that aggressive in the strike zone with his fastball in Pac-10 play. It is hard for freshmen to stay aggressive when their fastball starts to get hit.

Go back a few years to 2003 when Josh Beckett of the pitched the Marlins past the Yankees in game six of the World Series, at Yankee Stadium. A dominant performance in the highest stakes game of the year. For those of you that grew up here in the Bay Area, you were fortunate to have witnessed players like Joe Montana and Jerry Rice perform to the peak of their abilities in the biggest, highest stakes games. I grew up in the Chicago suburbs during the Michael Jordan era and there was NOTHING like watching the greatest player in the world play at his best in the biggest games.

Generally speaking, we watch too much sports on TV, no doubt about it. For me, I find myself rarely watching “meaningless” regular season games between 2nd division teams, but tell me there is a game on TV that means something or is for something (championship or semi-final, etc) and then tell me that game has some of the very best players in it, and I am there and it is not to see the result. It is to watch the best and hopefully see them at their best when it means the most.

For whatever reason, SSU has become “Bounce Back University” for a number of our local players that either fell out of favor at a D1, left on their own accord, or left for academic or off-field issues. Everyone is deserving of a second chance and certainly players should play where they are comfortable and where they are happy. This is not to judge any of the players that have left other programs, it is just acknowledging that they in fact have left and are now at SSU. The Seawolves have also done well recruiting the JC ranks and have a couple of former JC players that will get a shot at pro ball.

Now, the overall ability of the top players at SSU may not be on par with the top talent at Cal or Stanford or Santa Clara or some of the other D1s, but what they have is depth of talent and even more importantly, not only is their talent is nearly as good as the D1 guys but they will come at discounted prices. If LHP Scott Alexander has a good year to match his talent, he could go in the top five rounds, but that is not as likely as if he had stayed at Pepperdine and had a good year to match his talent because then he no doubt would be a top five round pick.

Other players that will be of interest to the scouts this spring… INF Randy Wells (started at St. Mary’s college), RHP Tyler Hess (started at Pepperdine), RHP Mark Lincoln (started at Long Beach State), OF Austin Hogans (started at UC Santa Barbara), OF Tillman Pugh (started at Arizona State, not sure if he is eligible or not). There are some others that will draw late round interest, but in addition to Scott Alexander, that group will have scouts coming steadily to SSU games all spring.

Others to put in your notes… OF Kyle Jones, RHP Kendall Davis, RHP Brian Flint, 1B/OF Joey Parigi, 1B Ryan Stevens

Obviously injuries will affect some teams. The development of the sophomore and freshmen classes for each school are HUGE factors on how a D1 team’s season will go. There are going to be teams with draft eligible players that will get “draft-itis” and that will affect those teams as the players are more focused on themselves than their teams or will put so much pressure on themselves they will underachieve. Again, many factors to affect the seasons of teams made up of 18-22 year old young men. That being said, here is what last weekend told me about Stanford. More thoughts about the other teams will follow in the coming days.

Stanford is strong from top to bottom. They have sophomores (Pries, Mooneyham, Snodgress, Griffiths, Busick) that contributed as freshman and those sophs have continued to develop (then again, Mooneyham regressed to his Nuke Laloosh ways with 9 walks in his first outing). They have a great fielding SS that seems to have found his bat, which is huge because last year Jake Schlander was an out. They have VERY talented freshmen in the starting line-up and all are talented kids ready to contribute right now, that being Stephen Piscotty, Kenny Diekroeger, and Jake Stewart. They have solid juniors with experience (Kiilsgaard, Kaskow, Walsh, Jones, Pracher, etc.). They have pitching depth, power, contact hitters, left/right balance, and obviously veteran leadership.

Synopsis… the Cardinal are a regional team and if Mooneyham gets back on track, they will contend for a Super Regional. I think they are lacking enough power arms, particularly RHPs, to contend for the College World Series but if their RHPs execute pitches well enough, they could make a run. Clearly if a team gets to a Super Regional they are a contender for the College World Series.